Montana’s Unaffordability Crisis. What’s next?
Bozeman’s housing market, once a case study in unaffordability, is finally showing early signs of relief. After years of unsustainable growth in both home prices and rents, new data indicate that vacancies are rising, rents are softening, and housing prices are beginning to stabilize. For those who have long dreamed of calling Montana home, especially the Gallatin Valley, this marks a hopeful turning point.
Montana’s Broader Housing Landscape
Across Montana, housing affordability has been a growing crisis. By late 2024, the state’s median home price reached $646,975 - an 85% increase over five years. Median household income stands at approximately $72,066, yet experts estimate a household would need an income closer to $171,301 to comfortably afford the median home. This leaves Montana with the largest affordability gap in the nation.
Bozeman: From Scarcity to Stabilization
Recent figures suggest the market is no longer spiraling upward. Zillow places the average home value at $727,277, representing a 2.7% decline over the past year. Realtor.com reports a median listing price of $850,000 as of July 2025, down 2.2% year-over-year. A regional market report shows the median single-family price at $765,000, a 6.7% decrease from May 2024 to May 2025.
Rentals: Vacancies Climb, Effective Rents Decline
Perhaps the most dramatic changes are unfolding in Bozeman’s rental market. Vacancy rates reached 12% or higher in mid-2025. Sterling CRE Advisors reported a Q4 2024 vacancy rate of 10.49%, compared to a rolling 12-month average of 7.29%. Two-bedroom rents have fallen to just above $1,700. Landlords are increasingly offering concessions, sometimes one to three months free, lowering effective rent even further.
Why Bozeman Still Represents Long-Term Value
Even with the challenges of affordability, Bozeman continues to represent one of the most compelling long-term investment and lifestyle opportunities in the Mountain West. Its economy is diversified, anchored by higher education, healthcare, technology, tourism, and professional services. The lifestyle proposition remains unmatched, with access to premier outdoor recreation, cultural amenities, and a strong sense of community.
Montana continues to face one of the largest affordability challenges in the nation, but Bozeman’s shifting dynamics provide cause for optimism. Rents are softening, vacancies are rising, and home prices are stabilizing, giving buyers more leverage. For those who have waited for the right moment, that moment may finally be here.
